AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 10 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at New Orleans Saints, final 17–20

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons17NONONew Orleans Saints20

Pregame first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #11/32 · NO run defense #31/32 · 140 offense / 153 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ATL -4.5
Model total
49.5
80% range (NO margin)
-20.5 to +13.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NO passing attack#31/32ATL pass defense#24/32
  • NO run game#18/32ATL run defense#13/32
  • ATL passing attack#4/32NO pass defense#19/32
  • ATL run game#11/32NO run defense#31/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

NONew Orleans Saints