AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 10 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Indianapolis Colts, final 30–20

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills30INDINDIndianapolis Colts20

Pregame first read

BUF run defense has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #26/32 · BUF run defense #1/32 · 126 offense / 119 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -5.5
Model total
43.5
80% range (IND margin)
-21.2 to +13.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#23/32BUF pass defense#28/32
  • IND run game#26/32BUF run defense#1/32
  • BUF passing attack#3/32IND pass defense#18/32
  • BUF run game#2/32IND run defense#6/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

INDIndianapolis Colts