2024 Week 10 · Final
Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs, final 14–16
Pregame first read
KC run game has the stronger league profile.
KC run game #6/32 · DEN run defense #20/32 · 157 offense / 134 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -2
- Model total
- 40.5
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -14.2 to +20.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingPatrick MahomesKC266 pass yds
- RushingAudric EstiméDEN53 rush yds
- ReceivingCourtland SuttonDEN70 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#9/32DEN pass defense#7/32
- KC run game#6/32DEN run defense#20/32
- DEN passing attack#22/32KC pass defense#15/32
- DEN run game#14/32KC run defense#3/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DENDenver Broncos
- Bo NixQB · 9 games195pass yds/g
- Javonte WilliamsRB · 9 games43rush yds/g
- Courtland SuttonWR · 8 games62.4rec yds/g
- Josh ReynoldsWR · 5 games36.6rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 8 games243pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 5 games82.8rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games96rec yds/g
- DeAndre HopkinsWR · 2 games57.5rec yds/g