AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 10 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 12–7

MINMINMinnesota Vikings12JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars7

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

JAX run game #15/32 · MIN run defense #2/32 · 121 offense / 105 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -7
Model total
48
80% range (JAX margin)
-23.0 to +11.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#7/32MIN pass defense#13/32
  • JAX run game#15/32MIN run defense#2/32
  • MIN passing attack#19/32JAX pass defense#32/32
  • MIN run game#25/32JAX run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

JAXJacksonville Jaguars