AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 10 · Final

New England Patriots at Chicago Bears, final 19–3

NENENew England Patriots19CHICHIChicago Bears3

Pregame first read

CHI pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #26/32 · CHI pass defense #4/32 · 189 offense / 176 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
CHI -6.5
Model total
41
80% range (CHI margin)
-9.3 to +24.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#14/32NE pass defense#25/32
  • CHI run game#16/32NE run defense#23/32
  • NE passing attack#26/32CHI pass defense#4/32
  • NE run game#12/32CHI run defense#28/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

CHIChicago Bears