2024 Week 10 · Final
San Francisco 49ers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 23–20
Pregame first read
SF passing attack has the stronger league profile.
SF passing attack #11/32 · TB pass defense #31/32 · 154 offense / 209 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- SF -2
- Model total
- 52.5
- 80% range (TB margin)
- -17.8 to +16.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBrock PurdySF353 pass yds
- RushingBucky IrvingTB73 rush yds
- ReceivingJauan JenningsSF93 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- TB passing attack#6/32SF pass defense#9/32
- TB run game#7/32SF run defense#14/32
- SF passing attack#11/32TB pass defense#31/32
- SF run game#3/32TB run defense#10/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 8 games263pass yds/g
- Jordan MasonRB · 8 games85.6rush yds/g
- George KittleTE · 7 games71.9rec yds/g
- Deebo Samuel Sr.WR · 6 games67.7rec yds/g
TBTampa Bay Buccaneers
- Baker MayfieldQB · 9 games265pass yds/g
- Bucky IrvingRB · 9 games46.6rush yds/g
- Chris Godwin Jr.WR · 7 games82.3rec yds/g
- Mike EvansWR · 7 games47.9rec yds/g