AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 11 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Denver Broncos, final 6–38

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons6DENDENDenver Broncos38

Pregame first read

ATL run game has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #4/32 · DEN run defense #14/32 · 154 offense / 127 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DEN -1.5
Model total
44.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-15.8 to +19.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#17/32ATL pass defense#22/32
  • DEN run game#16/32ATL run defense#12/32
  • ATL passing attack#8/32DEN pass defense#15/32
  • ATL run game#4/32DEN run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

DENDenver Broncos