2024 Week 11 · Final
Cincinnati Bengals at Los Angeles Chargers, final 27–34
Pregame first read
LAC pass defense has the stronger league profile.
CIN passing attack #13/32 · LAC pass defense #3/32 · 198 offense / 191 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- LAC -2.5
- Model total
- 45.5
- 80% range (LAC margin)
- -14.7 to +20.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJoe BurrowCIN356 pass yds
- RushingChase BrownCIN86 rush yds
- ReceivingTee HigginsCIN148 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LAC passing attack#5/32CIN pass defense#13/32
- LAC run game#20/32CIN run defense#19/32
- CIN passing attack#13/32LAC pass defense#3/32
- CIN run game#28/32LAC run defense#24/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
CINCincinnati Bengals
- Joe BurrowQB · 10 games267pass yds/g
- Chase BrownRB · 10 games52.1rush yds/g
- Ja'Marr ChaseWR · 10 games98.1rec yds/g
- Tee HigginsWR · 5 games68.2rec yds/g
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 9 games210pass yds/g
- J.K. DobbinsRB · 9 games74.4rush yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 9 games54.7rec yds/g
- Quentin JohnstonWR · 7 games43.7rec yds/g