AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 11 · Final

Green Bay Packers at Chicago Bears, final 20–19

GBGBGreen Bay Packers20CHICHIChicago Bears19

Pregame first read

GB run game has the stronger league profile.

GB run game #9/32 · CHI run defense #25/32 · 143 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
GB -2.5
Model total
41.5
80% range (CHI margin)
-19.8 to +15.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#22/32GB pass defense#9/32
  • CHI run game#17/32GB run defense#15/32
  • GB passing attack#12/32CHI pass defense#6/32
  • GB run game#9/32CHI run defense#25/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

GBGreen Bay Packers

CHIChicago Bears