2024 Week 11 · Final
Houston Texans at Dallas Cowboys, final 34–10
Pregame first read
HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.
DAL passing attack #31/32 · HOU pass defense #6/32 · 217 offense / 173 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- HOU -5.5
- Model total
- 47
- 80% range (DAL margin)
- -19.6 to +13.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingCooper RushDAL354 pass yds
- RushingJoe MixonHOU109 rush yds
- ReceivingCeeDee LambDAL93 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- DAL passing attack#31/32HOU pass defense#6/32
- DAL run game#25/32HOU run defense#7/32
- HOU passing attack#28/32DAL pass defense#28/32
- HOU run game#20/32DAL run defense#30/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 10 games237pass yds/g
- Joe MixonRB · 7 games93.6rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 5 games113rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 8 games62rec yds/g
DALDallas Cowboys
- Dak PrescottQB · 8 games247pass yds/g
- Rico DowdleRB · 8 games46.8rush yds/g
- CeeDee LambWR · 9 games75.7rec yds/g
- Jake FergusonTE · 8 games44.8rec yds/g