2024 Week 11 · Final
Indianapolis Colts at New York Jets, final 28–27
Pregame first read
IND run defense has the stronger league profile.
NYJ run game #21/32 · IND run defense #10/32 · 101 offense / 158 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- IND -1.5
- Model total
- 40.5
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -18.8 to +16.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAnthony RichardsonIND272 pass yds
- RushingBreece HallNYJ78 rush yds
- ReceivingJosh DownsIND84 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#16/32IND pass defense#8/32
- NYJ run game#21/32IND run defense#10/32
- IND passing attack#27/32NYJ pass defense#28/32
- IND run game#29/32NYJ run defense#28/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
INDIndianapolis Colts
- Joe FlaccoQB · 5 games233pass yds/g
- Jonathan TaylorRB · 7 games88rush yds/g
- Josh DownsWR · 8 games60.4rec yds/g
- Alec PierceWR · 10 games51.6rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Aaron RodgersQB · 10 games226pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 10 games55.4rush yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 10 games70.4rec yds/g
- Allen LazardWR · 7 games58.9rec yds/g