AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 11 · Final

Kansas City Chiefs at Buffalo Bills, final 21–30

KCKCKansas City Chiefs21BUFBUFBuffalo Bills30

Pregame first read

BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BUF passing attack #3/32 · KC pass defense #20/32 · 175 offense / 167 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -1
Model total
44.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-16.1 to +19.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#3/32KC pass defense#20/32
  • BUF run game#1/32KC run defense#7/32
  • KC passing attack#9/32BUF pass defense#23/32
  • KC run game#6/32BUF run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

KCKansas City Chiefs

BUFBuffalo Bills