AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 11 · Final

Los Angeles Rams at New England Patriots, final 28–22

LALALos Angeles Rams28NENENew England Patriots22

Pregame first read

LA pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #23/32 · LA pass defense #5/32 · 180 offense / 174 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LA -2.5
Model total
41.5
80% range (NE margin)
-19.6 to +15.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NE passing attack#23/32LA pass defense#5/32
  • NE run game#11/32LA run defense#4/32
  • LA passing attack#20/32NE pass defense#14/32
  • LA run game#30/32NE run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

LALos Angeles Rams

NENew England Patriots