AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 12 · Final

Baltimore Ravens at Los Angeles Chargers, final 30–23

BALBALBaltimore Ravens30LACLACLos Angeles Chargers23

Pregame first read

BAL run game has the stronger league profile.

BAL run game #13/32 · LAC run defense #28/32 · 127 offense / 118 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BAL -2
Model total
47.5
80% range (LAC margin)
-19.4 to +16.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • LAC passing attack#12/32BAL pass defense#19/32
  • LAC run game#15/32BAL run defense#6/32
  • BAL passing attack#1/32LAC pass defense#4/32
  • BAL run game#13/32LAC run defense#28/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BALBaltimore Ravens

LACLos Angeles Chargers