AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 12 · Final

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears, final 30–27

MINMINMinnesota Vikings30CHICHIChicago Bears27

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

CHI run game #7/32 · MIN run defense #1/32 · 135 offense / 109 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -2.5
Model total
40.5
80% range (CHI margin)
-19.1 to +16.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CHI passing attack#28/32MIN pass defense#22/32
  • CHI run game#7/32MIN run defense#1/32
  • MIN passing attack#17/32CHI pass defense#17/32
  • MIN run game#21/32CHI run defense#19/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MINMinnesota Vikings

CHIChicago Bears