AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 12 · Final

New England Patriots at Miami Dolphins, final 15–34

NENENew England Patriots15MIAMIAMiami Dolphins34

Pregame first read

MIA passing attack has the stronger league profile.

MIA passing attack #3/32 · NE pass defense #20/32 · 163 offense / 151 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -1.5
Model total
41
80% range (MIA margin)
-15.0 to +20.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#3/32NE pass defense#20/32
  • MIA run game#26/32NE run defense#21/32
  • NE passing attack#20/32MIA pass defense#23/32
  • NE run game#10/32MIA run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

MIAMiami Dolphins