AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 12 · Final

Tennessee Titans at Houston Texans, final 32–27

TENTENTennessee Titans32HOUHOUHouston Texans27

Pregame first read

HOU run defense has the stronger league profile.

TEN run game #28/32 · HOU run defense #5/32 · 135 offense / 116 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -7.5
Model total
45
80% range (HOU margin)
-9.1 to +26.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#25/32TEN pass defense#21/32
  • HOU run game#19/32TEN run defense#17/32
  • TEN passing attack#22/32HOU pass defense#6/32
  • TEN run game#28/32HOU run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TENTennessee Titans

HOUHouston Texans