AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 13 · Final

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 23–20

HOUHOUHouston Texans23JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars20

Pregame first read

HOU pass defense has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #26/32 · HOU pass defense #5/32 · 144 offense / 194 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -6
Model total
48.5
80% range (JAX margin)
-23.2 to +12.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#26/32HOU pass defense#5/32
  • JAX run game#21/32HOU run defense#4/32
  • HOU passing attack#25/32JAX pass defense#31/32
  • HOU run game#19/32JAX run defense#22/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

HOUHouston Texans

JAXJacksonville Jaguars