2024 Week 13 · Final
Indianapolis Colts at New England Patriots, final 25–24
Pregame first read
NE run defense has the stronger league profile.
IND run game #27/32 · NE run defense #9/32 · 121 offense / 129 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- IND -1
- Model total
- 43
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -18.4 to +17.4
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingDrake MayeNE238 pass yds
- RushingJonathan TaylorIND96 rush yds
- ReceivingHunter HenryNE75 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#23/32IND pass defense#15/32
- NE run game#10/32IND run defense#16/32
- IND passing attack#29/32NE pass defense#22/32
- IND run game#27/32NE run defense#9/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
INDIndianapolis Colts
- Joe FlaccoQB · 5 games233pass yds/g
- Jonathan TaylorRB · 9 games78.7rush yds/g
- Josh DownsWR · 10 games59.4rec yds/g
- Alec PierceWR · 12 games52.4rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 8 games182pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 11 games54.4rush yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 12 games44.6rec yds/g
- DeMario DouglasWR · 11 games43.4rec yds/g