AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 14 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Minnesota Vikings, final 21–42

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons21MINMINMinnesota Vikings42

Pregame first read

MIN run defense has the stronger league profile.

ATL run game #20/32 · MIN run defense #3/32 · 146 offense / 108 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIN -3
Model total
45.5
80% range (MIN margin)
-11.3 to +21.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIN passing attack#13/32ATL pass defense#25/32
  • MIN run game#24/32ATL run defense#10/32
  • ATL passing attack#16/32MIN pass defense#7/32
  • ATL run game#20/32MIN run defense#3/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

MINMinnesota Vikings