2024 Week 15 · Final
Buffalo Bills at Detroit Lions, final 48–42
Pregame first read
DET passing attack has the stronger league profile.
DET passing attack #2/32 · BUF pass defense #28/32 · 180 offense / 152 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DET -2
- Model total
- 51.5
- 80% range (DET margin)
- -11.8 to +20.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJared GoffDET494 pass yds
- RushingJames CookBUF105 rush yds
- ReceivingAmon-Ra St. BrownDET193 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- DET passing attack#2/32BUF pass defense#28/32
- DET run game#16/32BUF run defense#8/32
- BUF passing attack#8/32DET pass defense#2/32
- BUF run game#2/32DET run defense#4/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 13 games233pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 12 games60.3rush yds/g
- Khalil ShakirWR · 12 games61.3rec yds/g
- Keon ColemanWR · 9 games46.3rec yds/g
DETDetroit Lions
- Jared GoffQB · 13 games251pass yds/g
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · 13 games78.2rush yds/g
- Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · 13 games66.4rec yds/g
- Jameson WilliamsWR · 11 games64.5rec yds/g