AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 15 · Final

Indianapolis Colts at Denver Broncos, final 13–31

INDINDIndianapolis Colts13DENDENDenver Broncos31

Pregame first read

DEN run defense has the stronger league profile.

IND run game #25/32 · DEN run defense #5/32 · 130 offense / 112 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DEN -5
Model total
43.5
80% range (DEN margin)
-8.9 to +23.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DEN passing attack#7/32IND pass defense#15/32
  • DEN run game#22/32IND run defense#26/32
  • IND passing attack#28/32DEN pass defense#13/32
  • IND run game#25/32DEN run defense#5/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

INDIndianapolis Colts

DENDenver Broncos