AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 15 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Houston Texans, final 12–20

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins12HOUHOUHouston Texans20

Pregame first read

HOU run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #32/32 · HOU run defense #1/32 · 101 offense / 127 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
HOU -0.5
Model total
47.5
80% range (HOU margin)
-13.2 to +18.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#27/32MIA pass defense#16/32
  • HOU run game#14/32MIA run defense#7/32
  • MIA passing attack#1/32HOU pass defense#10/32
  • MIA run game#32/32HOU run defense#1/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

HOUHouston Texans