AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 15 · Final

New England Patriots at Arizona Cardinals, final 17–30

NENENew England Patriots17ARIARIArizona Cardinals30

Pregame first read

ARI pass defense has the stronger league profile.

NE passing attack #21/32 · ARI pass defense #6/32 · 190 offense / 187 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
ARI -3
Model total
43
80% range (ARI margin)
-10.5 to +21.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • ARI passing attack#17/32NE pass defense#17/32
  • ARI run game#12/32NE run defense#10/32
  • NE passing attack#21/32ARI pass defense#6/32
  • NE run game#8/32ARI run defense#14/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

ARIArizona Cardinals