AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 15 · Final

New York Jets at Jacksonville Jaguars, final 32–25

NYJNYJNew York Jets32JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars25

Pregame first read

NYJ run defense has the stronger league profile.

JAX run game #30/32 · NYJ run defense #21/32 · 102 offense / 143 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
NYJ -0.5
Model total
45
80% range (JAX margin)
-13.9 to +18.1

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • JAX passing attack#26/32NYJ pass defense#26/32
  • JAX run game#30/32NYJ run defense#21/32
  • NYJ passing attack#20/32JAX pass defense#27/32
  • NYJ run game#26/32JAX run defense#24/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

JAXJacksonville Jaguars