AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 15 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Los Angeles Chargers, final 40–17

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers40LACLACLos Angeles Chargers17

Pregame first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #7/32 · LAC run defense #29/32 · 142 offense / 141 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
LAC -0.5
Model total
47.5
80% range (LAC margin)
-13.4 to +18.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • LAC passing attack#14/32TB pass defense#20/32
  • LAC run game#17/32TB run defense#3/32
  • TB passing attack#10/32LAC pass defense#14/32
  • TB run game#7/32LAC run defense#29/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

LACLos Angeles Chargers