2024 Week 16 · Final
Detroit Lions at Chicago Bears, final 34–17
Pregame first read
DET passing attack has the stronger league profile.
DET passing attack #1/32 · CHI pass defense #32/32 · 210 offense / 161 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DET -13
- Model total
- 48
- 80% range (CHI margin)
- -26.8 to +5.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJared GoffDET336 pass yds
- RushingJahmyr GibbsDET109 rush yds
- ReceivingJameson WilliamsDET143 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- CHI passing attack#23/32DET pass defense#16/32
- CHI run game#8/32DET run defense#26/32
- DET passing attack#1/32CHI pass defense#32/32
- DET run game#10/32CHI run defense#20/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DETDetroit Lions
- Jared GoffQB · 14 games269pass yds/g
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · 14 games74.8rush yds/g
- Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · 14 games75.4rec yds/g
- Jameson WilliamsWR · 12 games62.3rec yds/g
CHIChicago Bears
- Caleb WilliamsQB · 14 games210pass yds/g
- D'Andre SwiftRB · 14 games58.6rush yds/g
- DJ MooreWR · 14 games54.1rec yds/g
- Keenan AllenWR · 12 games46.1rec yds/g