2024 Week 16 · Final
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, final 19–27
Pregame first read
KC run defense has the stronger league profile.
HOU run game #28/32 · KC run defense #15/32 · 108 offense / 120 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- KC -0.5
- Model total
- 43
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -13.7 to +18.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingPatrick MahomesKC260 pass yds
- RushingJoe MixonHOU57 rush yds
- ReceivingTank DellHOU98 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#14/32HOU pass defense#3/32
- KC run game#5/32HOU run defense#3/32
- HOU passing attack#24/32KC pass defense#15/32
- HOU run game#28/32KC run defense#15/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 14 games232pass yds/g
- Joe MixonRB · 11 games82.7rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 9 games94.3rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 8 games62rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 14 games239pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 11 games59.4rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games96rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 14 games50.6rec yds/g