2024 Week 16 · Final
Jacksonville Jaguars at Las Vegas Raiders, final 14–19
Pregame first read
LV run defense has the stronger league profile.
JAX run game #25/32 · LV run defense #6/32 · 114 offense / 126 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- JAX -2
- Model total
- 43.5
- 80% range (LV margin)
- -15.8 to +16.3
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAidan O'ConnellLV257 pass yds
- RushingTank BigsbyJAX50 rush yds
- ReceivingBrian Thomas Jr.JAX132 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- LV passing attack#26/32JAX pass defense#30/32
- LV run game#29/32JAX run defense#30/32
- JAX passing attack#19/32LV pass defense#26/32
- JAX run game#25/32LV run defense#6/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
JAXJacksonville Jaguars
- Trevor LawrenceQB · 10 games205pass yds/g
- Tank BigsbyRB · 12 games53.7rush yds/g
- Brian Thomas Jr.WR · 14 games68.3rec yds/g
- Christian KirkWR · 8 games47.4rec yds/g
LVLas Vegas Raiders
- Gardner MinshewQB · 10 games201pass yds/g
- Sincere McCormickRB · 4 games45.8rush yds/g
- Davante AdamsWR · 3 games69.7rec yds/g
- Brock BowersTE · 14 games69.1rec yds/g