AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 16 · Final

New England Patriots at Buffalo Bills, final 21–24

NENENew England Patriots21BUFBUFBuffalo Bills24

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #1/32 · NE run defense #19/32 · 144 offense / 127 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -8.5
Model total
51
80% range (BUF margin)
-5.6 to +26.4

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#4/32NE pass defense#21/32
  • BUF run game#1/32NE run defense#19/32
  • NE passing attack#16/32BUF pass defense#27/32
  • NE run game#12/32BUF run defense#8/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NENew England Patriots

BUFBuffalo Bills