AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 16 · Final

San Francisco 49ers at Miami Dolphins, final 17–29

SFSFSan Francisco 49ers17MIAMIAMiami Dolphins29

Pregame first read

MIA run defense has the stronger league profile.

SF run game #19/32 · MIA run defense #9/32 · 121 offense / 99 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -4
Model total
45.5
80% range (MIA margin)
-10.2 to +21.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • MIA passing attack#3/32SF pass defense#12/32
  • MIA run game#32/32SF run defense#27/32
  • SF passing attack#27/32MIA pass defense#18/32
  • SF run game#19/32MIA run defense#9/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

SFSan Francisco 49ers

MIAMiami Dolphins