AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 16 · Final

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys, final 24–26

TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers24DALDALDallas Cowboys26

Pregame first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

DAL run game #26/32 · TB run defense #2/32 · 140 offense / 96 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -5
Model total
49.5
80% range (DAL margin)
-19.0 to +13.0

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DAL passing attack#22/32TB pass defense#7/32
  • DAL run game#26/32TB run defense#2/32
  • TB passing attack#9/32DAL pass defense#3/32
  • TB run game#7/32DAL run defense#31/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers

DALDallas Cowboys