AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 17 · Final

Atlanta Falcons at Washington Commanders, final 24–30

ATLATLAtlanta Falcons24WASWASWashington Commanders30

Pregame first read

WAS pass defense has the stronger league profile.

ATL passing attack #28/32 · WAS pass defense #15/32 · 159 offense / 170 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
WAS -2
Model total
47
80% range (WAS margin)
-12.1 to +20.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • WAS passing attack#17/32ATL pass defense#16/32
  • WAS run game#8/32ATL run defense#3/32
  • ATL passing attack#28/32WAS pass defense#15/32
  • ATL run game#24/32WAS run defense#17/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

ATLAtlanta Falcons

WASWashington Commanders