2024 Week 17 · Final
Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers, final 40–34
Pregame first read
DET passing attack has the stronger league profile.
DET passing attack #3/32 · SF pass defense #21/32 · 210 offense / 136 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- DET -8.5
- Model total
- 48
- 80% range (SF margin)
- -22.6 to +10.0
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingBrock PurdySF377 pass yds
- RushingJahmyr GibbsDET117 rush yds
- ReceivingRicky PearsallSF141 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- SF passing attack#21/32DET pass defense#23/32
- SF run game#27/32DET run defense#23/32
- DET passing attack#3/32SF pass defense#21/32
- DET run game#11/32SF run defense#28/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
DETDetroit Lions
- Jared GoffQB · 15 games273pass yds/g
- Jahmyr GibbsRB · 15 games77.1rush yds/g
- Amon-Ra St. BrownWR · 15 games75.1rec yds/g
- Jameson WilliamsWR · 13 games68.5rec yds/g
SFSan Francisco 49ers
- Brock PurdyQB · 14 games249pass yds/g
- Jordan MasonRB · 12 games65.8rush yds/g
- George KittleTE · 13 games74.4rec yds/g
- Jauan JenningsWR · 13 games65.8rec yds/g