2024 Week 17 · Final
Los Angeles Chargers at New England Patriots, final 40–7
Pregame first read
LAC passing attack has the stronger league profile.
LAC passing attack #20/32 · NE pass defense #30/32 · 174 offense / 155 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- LAC -2.5
- Model total
- 45.5
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -16.6 to +15.7
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJustin HerbertLAC281 pass yds
- RushingJ.K. DobbinsLAC76 rush yds
- ReceivingLadd McConkeyLAC94 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#15/32LAC pass defense#23/32
- NE run game#18/32LAC run defense#23/32
- LAC passing attack#20/32NE pass defense#30/32
- LAC run game#22/32NE run defense#18/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
LACLos Angeles Chargers
- Justin HerbertQB · 15 games216pass yds/g
- J.K. DobbinsRB · 11 games69.6rush yds/g
- Ladd McConkeyWR · 14 games68.6rec yds/g
- Josh PalmerWR · 14 games38.8rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 11 games196pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 14 games57.1rush yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 15 games44.9rec yds/g
- DeMario DouglasWR · 14 games38.6rec yds/g