AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 17 · Final

Miami Dolphins at Cleveland Browns, final 20–3

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins20CLECLECleveland Browns3

Pregame first read

CLE run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #32/32 · CLE run defense #10/32 · 102 offense / 145 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
MIA -7.5
Model total
46
80% range (CLE margin)
-21.6 to +10.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • CLE passing attack#31/32MIA pass defense#22/32
  • CLE run game#13/32MIA run defense#8/32
  • MIA passing attack#6/32CLE pass defense#20/32
  • MIA run game#32/32CLE run defense#10/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

CLECleveland Browns