AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 17 · Final

New York Jets at Buffalo Bills, final 14–40

NYJNYJNew York Jets14BUFBUFBuffalo Bills40

Pregame first read

BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.

BUF passing attack #2/32 · NYJ pass defense #27/32 · 159 offense / 182 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -7
Model total
52
80% range (BUF margin)
-7.4 to +24.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#2/32NYJ pass defense#27/32
  • BUF run game#1/32NYJ run defense#15/32
  • NYJ passing attack#13/32BUF pass defense#31/32
  • NYJ run game#19/32BUF run defense#7/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NYJNew York Jets

BUFBuffalo Bills