2024 Week 18 · Final
Buffalo Bills at New England Patriots, final 16–23
Pregame first read
BUF passing attack has the stronger league profile.
BUF passing attack #1/32 · NE pass defense #30/32 · 147 offense / 168 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- BUF -9
- Model total
- 51.5
- 80% range (NE margin)
- -23.1 to +9.5
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingJoe Milton IIINE241 pass yds
- RushingRay DavisBUF64 rush yds
- ReceivingKayshon BoutteNE117 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NE passing attack#25/32BUF pass defense#24/32
- NE run game#26/32BUF run defense#5/32
- BUF passing attack#1/32NE pass defense#30/32
- BUF run game#2/32NE run defense#23/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
BUFBuffalo Bills
- Josh AllenQB · 16 games233pass yds/g
- James CookRB · 15 games65.4rush yds/g
- Khalil ShakirWR · 15 games54.7rec yds/g
- Keon ColemanWR · 12 games43.8rec yds/g
NENew England Patriots
- Drake MayeQB · 12 games190pass yds/g
- Rhamondre StevensonRB · 15 games53.4rush yds/g
- Hunter HenryTE · 16 games42.1rec yds/g
- DeMario DouglasWR · 15 games39.1rec yds/g