2024 Week 18 · Final
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers, final 24–22
Pregame first read
GB run defense has the stronger league profile.
CHI run game #32/32 · GB run defense #2/32 · 104 offense / 107 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- GB -10.5
- Model total
- 42.5
- 80% range (GB margin)
- -4.0 to +28.6
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingCaleb WilliamsCHI148 pass yds
- RushingEmanuel WilsonGB73 rush yds
- ReceivingDJ MooreCHI86 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- GB passing attack#4/32CHI pass defense#26/32
- GB run game#9/32CHI run defense#25/32
- CHI passing attack#23/32GB pass defense#12/32
- CHI run game#32/32GB run defense#2/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
CHIChicago Bears
- Caleb WilliamsQB · 16 games212pass yds/g
- D'Andre SwiftRB · 16 games55.9rush yds/g
- DJ MooreWR · 16 games55rec yds/g
- Keenan AllenWR · 14 games51.4rec yds/g
GBGreen Bay Packers
- Jordan LoveQB · 14 games237pass yds/g
- Josh JacobsRB · 16 games80.3rush yds/g
- Jayden ReedWR · 16 games50.6rec yds/g
- Christian WatsonWR · 13 games47.7rec yds/g