AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 18 · Final

Jacksonville Jaguars at Indianapolis Colts, final 23–26

JAXJAXJacksonville Jaguars23INDINDIndianapolis Colts26

Pregame first read

JAX passing attack has the stronger league profile.

JAX passing attack #13/32 · IND pass defense #27/32 · 189 offense / 167 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
IND -0.5
Model total
45
80% range (IND margin)
-14.0 to +18.6

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • IND passing attack#26/32JAX pass defense#16/32
  • IND run game#15/32JAX run defense#24/32
  • JAX passing attack#13/32IND pass defense#27/32
  • JAX run game#19/32IND run defense#15/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

JAXJacksonville Jaguars

INDIndianapolis Colts