2024 Week 18 · Final
Miami Dolphins at New York Jets, final 20–32
Pregame first read
MIA passing attack has the stronger league profile.
MIA passing attack #8/32 · NYJ pass defense #31/32 · 206 offense / 177 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- MIA -7
- Model total
- 45
- 80% range (NYJ margin)
- -21.3 to +11.2
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingAaron RodgersNYJ274 pass yds
- RushingDe'Von AchaneMIA121 rush yds
- ReceivingDavante AdamsNYJ88 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- NYJ passing attack#18/32MIA pass defense#14/32
- NYJ run game#13/32MIA run defense#6/32
- MIA passing attack#8/32NYJ pass defense#31/32
- MIA run game#31/32NYJ run defense#17/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
MIAMiami Dolphins
- Tua TagovailoaQB · 11 games261pass yds/g
- De'Von AchaneRB · 16 games49.1rush yds/g
- Tyreek HillWR · 16 games58.7rec yds/g
- Jonnu SmithTE · 16 games51.8rec yds/g
NYJNew York Jets
- Aaron RodgersQB · 16 games226pass yds/g
- Breece HallRB · 15 games54.6rush yds/g
- Davante AdamsWR · 10 games76.6rec yds/g
- Garrett WilsonWR · 16 games65.8rec yds/g