AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 18 · Final

New Orleans Saints at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 19–27

NONONew Orleans Saints19TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers27

Pregame first read

TB run defense has the stronger league profile.

NO run game #28/32 · TB run defense #1/32 · 112 offense / 86 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -7.5
Model total
43.5
80% range (TB margin)
-6.8 to +25.7

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#6/32NO pass defense#17/32
  • TB run game#4/32NO run defense#30/32
  • NO passing attack#30/32TB pass defense#6/32
  • NO run game#28/32TB run defense#1/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

NONew Orleans Saints

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers