AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 18 · Final

Washington Commanders at Dallas Cowboys, final 23–19

WASWASWashington Commanders23DALDALDallas Cowboys19

Pregame first read

WAS run game has the stronger league profile.

WAS run game #1/32 · DAL run defense #26/32 · 165 offense / 117 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
WAS -5
Model total
50.5
80% range (DAL margin)
-19.3 to +13.3

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DAL passing attack#20/32WAS pass defense#15/32
  • DAL run game#25/32WAS run defense#10/32
  • WAS passing attack#17/32DAL pass defense#10/32
  • WAS run game#1/32DAL run defense#26/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

DALDallas Cowboys