AUGRISOpen research

2024 Postseason week 19 · Final

Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills, final 7–31

DENDENDenver Broncos7BUFBUFBuffalo Bills31

Pregame first read

DEN passing attack has the stronger league profile.

DEN passing attack #7/32 · BUF pass defense #29/32 · 173 offense / 197 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DEN -1.5
Model total
53.5
80% range (BUF margin)
-15.1 to +17.8

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • BUF passing attack#3/32DEN pass defense#10/32
  • BUF run game#7/32DEN run defense#3/32
  • DEN passing attack#7/32BUF pass defense#29/32
  • DEN run game#9/32BUF run defense#4/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

DENDenver Broncos

BUFBuffalo Bills