AUGRISOpen research

2024 Postseason week 19 · Final

Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, final 23–20

WASWASWashington Commanders23TBTBTampa Bay Buccaneers20

Pregame first read

TB run game has the stronger league profile.

TB run game #4/32 · WAS run defense #19/32 · 155 offense / 128 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
TB -5
Model total
50.5
80% range (TB margin)
-8.7 to +24.2

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • TB passing attack#4/32WAS pass defense#9/32
  • TB run game#4/32WAS run defense#19/32
  • WAS passing attack#15/32TB pass defense#5/32
  • WAS run game#1/32TB run defense#2/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

TBTampa Bay Buccaneers