2024 Postseason week 20 · Final
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs, final 14–23
Pregame first read
KC pass defense has the stronger league profile.
HOU passing attack #29/32 · KC pass defense #9/32 · 173 offense / 184 defense EPA plays.
Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.
- Model spread
- HOU -1.5
- Model total
- 42
- 80% range (KC margin)
- -15.0 to +17.9
League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.
Recorded leaders
- PassingC.J. StroudHOU245 pass yds
- RushingJoe MixonHOU88 rush yds
- ReceivingTravis KelceKC117 rec yds
Unit matchups
Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.
- KC passing attack#11/32HOU pass defense#8/32
- KC run game#23/32HOU run defense#5/32
- HOU passing attack#29/32KC pass defense#9/32
- HOU run game#24/32KC run defense#22/32
Players to watch
Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.
HOUHouston Texans
- C.J. StroudQB · 17 games219pass yds/g
- Joe MixonRB · 14 games72.6rush yds/g
- Nico CollinsWR · 12 games83.8rec yds/g
- Stefon DiggsWR · 8 games62rec yds/g
KCKansas City Chiefs
- Patrick MahomesQB · 16 games246pass yds/g
- Kareem HuntRB · 13 games56rush yds/g
- Rashee RiceWR · 3 games96rec yds/g
- Travis KelceTE · 16 games51.4rec yds/g