AUGRISOpen research

2024 Postseason week 20 · Final

Washington Commanders at Detroit Lions, final 45–31

WASWASWashington Commanders45DETDETDetroit Lions31

Pregame first read

WAS run game has the stronger league profile.

WAS run game #4/32 · DET run defense #31/32 · 143 offense / 109 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
DET -5.5
Model total
54
80% range (DET margin)
-8.3 to +24.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • DET passing attack#3/32WAS pass defense#14/32
  • DET run game#15/32WAS run defense#19/32
  • WAS passing attack#10/32DET pass defense#23/32
  • WAS run game#4/32DET run defense#31/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

WASWashington Commanders

DETDetroit Lions