AUGRISOpen research

2024 Postseason week 21 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs, final 29–32

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills29KCKCKansas City Chiefs32

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #15/32 · KC run defense #29/32 · 168 offense / 138 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model’s 80% range includes either team winning.

Model spread
BUF -3.5
Model total
48
80% range (KC margin)
-17.4 to +15.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • KC passing attack#12/32BUF pass defense#9/32
  • KC run game#22/32BUF run defense#14/32
  • BUF passing attack#4/32KC pass defense#6/32
  • BUF run game#15/32KC run defense#29/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

KCKansas City Chiefs