AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 5 · Final

Buffalo Bills at Houston Texans, final 20–23

BUFBUFBuffalo Bills20HOUHOUHouston Texans23

Pregame first read

BUF run game has the stronger league profile.

BUF run game #6/32 · HOU run defense #26/32 · 106 offense / 95 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model range is based on past scoring errors; current availability is unverified.

Model spread
BUF -7
Model total
47.5
80% range (HOU margin)
+2.9 to +2.9

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • HOU passing attack#9/32BUF pass defense#3/32
  • HOU run game#29/32BUF run defense#32/32
  • BUF passing attack#2/32HOU pass defense#8/32
  • BUF run game#6/32HOU run defense#26/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

BUFBuffalo Bills

HOUHouston Texans