AUGRISOpen research

2024 Week 5 · Final

Miami Dolphins at New England Patriots, final 15–10

MIAMIAMiami Dolphins15NENENew England Patriots10

Pregame first read

NE run defense has the stronger league profile.

MIA run game #31/32 · NE run defense #13/32 · 107 offense / 98 defense EPA plays.

Principal uncertainty · The model range is based on past scoring errors; current availability is unverified.

Model spread
NE -3
Model total
36
80% range (NE margin)
+12.5 to +12.5

League profiles describe different prior opponents. They do not measure this game’s head-to-head outcome. The model is a historical scoring estimate, not a betting line, and it does not know injuries or availability.

Recorded leaders

Unit matchups

Rank among qualified teams by EPA per play, from each team's last five games before kickoff.

  • NE passing attack#28/32MIA pass defense#21/32
  • NE run game#26/32MIA run defense#9/32
  • MIA passing attack#29/32NE pass defense#29/32
  • MIA run game#31/32NE run defense#13/32

Players to watch

Per-game averages from 2024 games before kickoff, minimum two games. Availability is not verified.

MIAMiami Dolphins

NENew England Patriots